Friday, October 31, 2008

Certain victory for same-sex marriage (but when?)

The Field Poll is the gold standard of California polling. When they speak, we should listen.

Once again they have spoken (and for the last time) on Proposition 8. I urge you to read the fascinating analysis. The message is very clear: We live in a highly divided state.

No, not on gender and race (that is so last millenium!) but in geography, political ideology, party affiliation, age, education, and religion. Strangely, these are quite strongly correlated.

Grandpa, a lifelong Republican, voted early for Prop 8 by mail. He's a huge fan of McCain, lives outside Sacramento, is strongly conservative, didn't make it past high school (who could afford to back then!), and never misses Sunday services. Although he doesn't know any gay people (he doesn't get out much), he assumes they're likable enough and doesn't believe the attack ads. He usually minds his own business, but marriage is just too important for him to give in on. He wants to protect the institution of marriage for his granddaughter for when her live-in boyfriend is ready to make an honest woman of her. Hopefully, he will still be around to see it.

His granddaughter Katlin is now in grad school. She never trusted politicians much before, but there's something special about Obama, and she is looking forward to voting for him on Election Day. For her, No on Prop. 8 is a nobrainer. She has lots of gay friends, and they hang out on Sundays in the City. She's tried talking to Grandpa, but they live in different worlds, and she's given up on his generation anyway.

Grandpa won't change his mind, but he won't be around much longer. The future belongs to the multiethnic, multicultural, diversity-tolerant embracers of Change: our youth. As it should be.

It seems Grandpa is at last outnumbered. It appears (after some fretful gap closing) that Proposition 8 is ready to be defeated: 49% to 44%.

Even if (unthinkably) we are set back once again, we should remember John Milton's admonition: they also serve who only stand and wait.

Grandpa is not ready for change. We are. The good news for most of us is, we can outwait him. The better news is, it seems we don't have to.


Scott B. said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Scott B. said...

"He wants to protect the institution of marriage for his granddaughter for when her live-in boyfriend is ready to make an honest woman of her."

Stellar. Without question, the best sentence I've read all week.

Reuven said...

Warning! The Mormon Church plans to have its followers distribute disgusting gay propaganda with their candy tonight..telling kids that if prop 8 passes their MOM will become their DAD! Details here: Spread the word! There's not much time.

Unknown said...


I don't know whether it's LDS or LSD that has you so riled up. Your link had plenty of "details", just no credible authentication.

The only "disgusting propaganda" here seems to be yours. Please don't pollute my blog with your slanders. You are a discredit to the No on 8 campaign.

Scott B. said...

Reuven seems to be an equal-opportunity offender here...